
On Disarranging Mine, Marie asks when did Black Friday become Black Friday, the moniker that needs no explanation. That same question occurred to me while watching endless videos of people rushing into stores at 6 a.m. on television. I did a quick search yesterday and left a comment on Marie's site. The research was pretty slapdash so I repeated it, this time being more careful.
I searched the Lexis-Nexis general news database (major newspapers, phrase had to be in headline or lead paragraph) for occurrences of the phrase "black friday" in November and December of each year back until there were no occurrences (1991). Looking at the results I tossed out anything that was not related to holiday shopping (i.e. "she wore black Friday", the Australian metal band Black Friday, etc.). As you can see in the graph use of the phrase "Black Friday" has skyrocketed in the past few years. Keep in mind that this year's data is only through November 27th.
One unknown I didn't control for is the number of major newspapers included in the Lexis-Nexis database. I'm assuming that while there may be more newspapers in the database since the early 1990s, the number of major newspapers probably hasn't changed all that much since then and probably hasn't changed at all in the last five years.
The earlier articles I skimmed all referred to Black Friday as the name retailers called the big, make-or-break, shopping day after Thanksgiving. None mentioned Black Friday without that explanation.
Where did the retailers come up with that name? I didn't find any explanation. Then again, I wasn't looking for an explanation. As someone commented on Marie's site, a received wisdom is that the name refers to the day retailers go into the black for the year. For example, the Wikipedia entry on Black Friday states "Black Friday is the day many retailers are thought to become profitable."
Jason, the commenter on Marie's site, and others point out this doesn't make much sense. For one, what is the "year" in question? Calendar year? Fiscal year? If the latter when did that fiscal year start? Wouldn't it be borderline magical if all or many retailers, whose products (shoes, jeans, computers, dishwashers) have different profit margins went into the black on an annual basis (fiscal or calendar) on the very same day?
The "into the black" explanation is easily dismissed. Another chestnut often mentioned is that Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year. This explanation is more popular and, when you see the frenzied shoppers on CNN, seems very compelling. Luckily, the retail industry keeps actual data on sales by day. In 2004 and 2002 the busiest shopping day has been the Saturday before Christmas. In those years Black Friday was second. The reverse was true in 2003, with Black Friday leading the way. This is also quite a change from just a few years ago.
I found two Washington Post articles, one each from 1996 and 1998,
in which they debunk the myth that the day after Thanksgiving is the
busiest shopping day of the year. Their source is the International
Council of Shopping Centers. According to the articles the Friday
after Thanksgiving was the seventh busiest shopping day of the year in
both 1995 and 1997. The 1998 article points out that the day after
Thanksgiving "hasn't been the biggest shopping day of the
year for decades" and that the Saturday before Christmas is typically
the busiest shopping day in terms of both sales and foot traffic.
Could this be a positive feedback? That is, does the trend toward more shopping on the day after Thanksgiving increase the popularity of "Black Friday", which encourages retailers to capitalize on the Black Friday buzz, which, in turn increases consumer desire to shop on the day after Thanksgiving?
I'll leave Cyber Monday to someone else.
Recent Comments