Return of the Depressing Day

For the second year in a row someone named Cliff Arnall, almost invariably referred to as a psychologist or professor at Cardiff University in Wales (In fact, he is a part-time tutor in their Continuing Education program.  Last year he was more often identified as Cliff Arnalls), has trotted out his "formula" for predicting the most depressing day of the year.  This year that day is today, January 23rd. 

As I ranted about last year, Arnall's "equation" for calculating the depressing date is gibberish.  Anyone who has passed junior high level math, or even vaguely remembers junior high, can see that his equation makes no sense.  I won't rehash all of last year's arguments in detail here, but equations usually have equal signs (i.e. = ) in them to show that a calculation results in an answer.  His does not. 

His equation also mixes apples and oranges.  In eighth grade science Mr. Brown taught us the factor-label method.  That sounds fancy but it is simple accounting to make sure the units of measure in any equation make sense.  For example, if you want to find out how far you will travel in two hours at ten miles/hour you multiply the two together  and the "hours" and "per hour" will cancel each other out leaving you with 20 miles.  A more complicated equation results in more accounting but if the answer is to be in days (like the most depressing day), all the other units of measure have to cancel out.   The "most depressing day" calculation has to wind up with an answer with time as a unit (preferably days but we can convert from minutes or years).  Otherwise, again, the equation makes no sense.  As best I can tell (since the "most depressing day" equation is incomplete it is difficult to be certain of this), the equation's units wind up "per money per time squared".  In the U.S. that would be 1/dollars*days squared, which, unless there is a "time is money" factor thrown into the equation is not days.

I could go on, the variables used are so vague as to be useless, etc., but my point is calculating "the most depressing day" is silly.  However, lots of people sadly take this information at face value.

David Bolchover in the Telegraph arrogantly writes, "today is officially the most depressing day of the year" and "The divisor of this formula (your mind's hopefully not so besieged by depression that you've forgotten your second-year maths)..."  I love this!  Officially!  Has a law been passed?  (By the way, why "officially" so often misused in this manner?)  Even though he hasn't done the math he panders to his readers math anxiety by essentially saying "trust me I've done the math".

Daphne Gordon of the Toronto Star encourages us to buy a light therapy lamp because "Jan. 24 is the most depressing day of the year, according to research recently published in Health magazine".  She is using last year's most depressing day, not this year.  Oops!

Erika Ellis at TheCelebrityCafe.com tells us "Research conducted by The Stress Institute has found evidence that this coming January 24, 2006 will be the most depressing day of the year. I am feeling depressed just thinking that my tax dollars went into this report."  Not only does she get the day wrong, she gets the institute and the funding organization wrong.  Nobody's tax dollars supported this "research".  It was funded by Sky Travel, I assume mainly to give them another reason to encourage people to escape a gloomy British winter.

In the Washington Times, Jennifer Harper actually interviews Arnall.  He sticks by his equation, she doesn't really press him on its value, but admits it would have "significant changes for countries with different cultures like Russia and China, and also for Southern Hemisphere countries for weather and cultural differences."

My favorite quote comes from SBS Australia:

Cliff Arnall, a health psychologist at the University of Cardiff, specialising in confidence-building and stress management, said the prediction was the result of some gruelling mathematics.

The gruelling math, of course, doesn't arise from the actual calculations (which are simple multiplication, division and subtraction) , but from the nonsense nature of the "equation".

A number of other writers use the "most depressing day" meme as a starting point for other discussions (several on the elections today in Canada).

So, what's my beef with "the most depressing day"?  Why does this have me all worked up?

First, I find it interesting that a notion based on gibberish has found so much traction.  We want to believe today is the most depressing day of the year.  It intuitively makes sense.  The holiday celebrations are over, we're back to work, the days are short and the weather is unpleasant, and our big Christmas credit card bill just arrived.  Now that we've got science and "gruelling" math to prove the case, well, it certainly must be the most depressing day.  A perfect example of an urban legend being born right before our very eyes.  Assuming the meme has legs, five years from now we'll all be standing around the water cooler at work talking about how the fourth Monday in January is always the most depressing day of the year and we should have stayed in bed instead of coming to work...

Hey, you don't think Sky Travel asked Arnall to give them a scientific reason to suggest people take a vacation during a traditionally slow travel season do you?  Or could Arnall have noticed that late-January is a slow travel time, pulled the formula out of his a... er, hat, and sold the idea to Sky Travel?   Nah, I'm being cynical and silly.  Sorry!  Let's get back on topic.

Second, more angrily, it upsets me that so many people take ideas at face value without a healthy dose of skepticism.  The idea that the population faces a most depressing day is obviously ludicrous.  Yet people have clearly accepted the idea.  Here in the U.S. we have a presidential administration and allies whose entire modus operandi depends on the citizenry not being skeptical.  The degree to which conflating Saddam Hussein with 9/11, smearing decorated veterans like John McCain, John Kerry, John Murtha, and Max Cleland who disagree with their political positions, subverting the Constitution by carrying out illegal torture and spying on citizens are successful has depended on us not questioning the actions of the administration.

Third, and finally, depression is a serious medical disease that takes many lives each year.  Nearly 15 percent of people suffering from depression commit suicide.  According to the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, suicide from depression accounted for over 30,000 deaths in 2001.  In 2002 nearly a quarter-million people in the U.S. needed medical attention following a suicide attempt.  The National Mental Health Association estimates that clinical depression costs the American economy 43.7 billion dollars in absenteeism, lost productivity and direct treatment costs.  To confuse a pop culture myth with a serious medical and societal problem serves to trivialize that problem.  The headline of one article cited above is "Get your Xanax, Zooloft and Prozac ready...".  Those are medications to take when you have a chemical imbalance in the brain, not when you're feeling groggy one morning.  To me "Sorry I was late for work today.  It's the most depressing day of the year and I couldn't wake up." doesn't quite compare to "Sorry I was late for work today.  I tried to kill myself."

Back to pictures of delicious junk food later today!

Update:  I am not alone!  Other blogs have also questioned media complacency toward this pseudo-scientific nonsense.

Funny Business points out that Simon Jeffery of the Guardian newspaper took Mr. Arnall to task several weeks ago. 

Comments

[isabel]

you tell 'em, Joe.

[Elana Centor]

Really enjoyed your take on the "Saddest Day of the Year", I particularly liked your explanation of why the formula is gibberish.

As the mainstream media continues to lash out at bloggers for being "snarky", and not doing their research, it is very interesting to me how many "mainstream" media outlets just run with this "gibberish" without checking the validity of the research and asking the obvious question--- Who paid Mr. Arnall to develop this formula.

Loved the hotdog photo. Makes me hungry and I had a great lunch.

[joe]

thanks!

[J]

Yes, people need to question things more! I can't stand the way people accept things without question. So maybe the 4th Monday in January will be a depressing day for me because it reminds me how unquestioning people are.

[CL]

I think the most depressing day of this year was Tuesday, Jan. 3, when we all had to go back to work!